The majority of the spaghetti models forecast Joaquin to turn west of north after 48-72 hours, with the storm moving inland over the mid-Atlantic states and merging with a trough.
The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 971 mb (28.67 inches).
A hurricane warning has been issued for the central Bahamas as the storm approaches.
Any changes in the forecast track for Joaquin could alter what we could see locally.
A Hurricane Watch continues for the Northwest Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but not Andros Island. A turn to the west with a decrease in speed is expected on Thursday.
Graphics released by the hurricane center indicate Joaquin will be on a direct path toward striking New Jersey’s southeast coast around 8 a.m. Monday.
Forecasters said Wednesday that computer models show Joaquin peaking in intensity in about three days, then a slow weakening trend is expected to begin.
Tropical Storm Joaquin has strengthened into Hurricane Joaquin.
Hurricane Joaquin has the US East Coast in its sights, according to the storm’s latest projected track.
That makes Joaquin the third hurricane of 2015 in the Atlantic.
Regardless of which of these scenarios comes true this weekend and early next week, the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast need to brace for a few heavy rain with a few places expecting more than ten inches of rain over the course of the next week.
Windy conditions are also likely into the weekend.
Elsewhere, in the eastern Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Marty continued to spin about 120 miles from Acapulco. Its maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour were just above hurricane threshold, but Chris says it will soon become stronger. Marty is now located approximately 115 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.